Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:13:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
04 0x048a…9be4 politics 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,583 (-6%) realized −$3,107 · open +$524
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate65%31W / 17L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$416per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$20,287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$202
14 days−$139
30 days−$2,281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$1,804
world 36% −$1,277
tech 11% +$382
other 9% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +12.0% +1.3% 100% 40% +1.0%
≤30d 46 -7.3% -16.2% 67% 41% -19.0%
≤90d 48 -11.2% -19.6% 65% 40% -22.7%
all 48 -11.2% -19.6% 65% 40% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 40% -22.7%
10% -27.3% 17% -30.1%
15% -34.4% 2% -36.8%
20% -40.8% 2% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$513) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$344 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$20,287
Realized−$3,107
Unrealized+$524
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses31 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions55
Markets (closed)48 / 103
History coverage31d
Avg bet$416
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 55 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 98¢ $968 $1,082 +$114 (+12%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $1,033 $1,074 +$41 (+4%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 88¢ 94¢ $949 $1,005 +$56 (+6%)
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $677 $697 +$20 (+3%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 75¢ 86¢ $609 $692 +$83 (+14%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 15¢ 32¢ $294 $628 +$334 (+113%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 80¢ 99¢ $497 $617 +$120 (+24%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 84¢ 100¢ $505 $600 +$95 (+19%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 80¢ 92¢ $520 $598 +$78 (+15%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 77¢ 100¢ $458 $593 +$135 (+29%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 88¢ 100¢ $506 $574 +$68 (+13%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Santa Clara County? Yes 59¢ 94¢ $357 $561 +$204 (+57%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $498 $539 +$41 (+8%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $506 $538 +$31 (+6%)
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $536 $533 −$3 (-1%)
Will Jon Hansen win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? No 96¢ 100¢ $504 $525 +$21 (+4%)
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $511 $516 +$4 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $505 $515 +$9 (+2%)
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $498 $510 +$13 (+3%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $498 $506 +$8 (+2%)
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in June? No 89¢ 87¢ $487 $478 −$9 (-2%)
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 99¢ $421 $459 +$39 (+9%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 76¢ $509 $458 −$51 (-10%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 83¢ 70¢ $506 $427 −$79 (-16%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 75¢ $500 $412 −$88 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Susie Lee be the Democratic nominee for NV-03? Jun 10 $293 +$66 +23%
Will Zachariah Wooden advance from the CA-07 primary election? Jun 10 $521 +$54 +10%
Will Ralph Nwobi advance from the CA-07 primary election? Jun 10 $127 +$13 +11%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $296 +$18 +6%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J Jun 09 $500 +$50 +10%
Will "The Balusters" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $150 +$50 +33%
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primar Jun 05 $116 +$282 +244%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $255 −$51 -20%
Will "Giant" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $320 −$320 -100%
Will Tuka Gafari advance from the CA-19 primary election? Jun 04 $505 +$45 +9%
Will Monica Sánchez advance from the CA-38 primary election? Jun 04 $513 +$87 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $506 −$506 -100%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 03 $455 −$48 -10%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 03 $503 +$172 +34%
Will Lindsay James be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02? Jun 03 $500 +$25 +5%
Will Christina Bohannan be the Democratic Nominee for IA-01? Jun 03 $497 +$28 +6%
Will Verlina Reynolds-Jackson be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? Jun 03 $502 +$48 +10%
Will Adam Hamawy be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? Jun 03 $473 +$110 +23%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $500 +$75 +15%
Will Doug Turner win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary e Jun 02 $239 −$238 -100%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 01 $905 −$904 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 01 $502 −$502 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? Jun 01 $497 +$53 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $713 +$122 +17%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 01 $508 +$56 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $968 +$274 +28%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $500 +$50 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $525 +$175 +33%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? Jun 01 $500 +$75 +15%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 01 $516 +$109 +21%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i May 31 $511 +$44 +9%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $504 +$121 +24%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 31 $519 +$31 +6%
Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? May 26 $96 −$94 -98%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C May 25 $516 −$216 -42%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 25 $507 −$127 -25%
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 24 $519 +$96 +19%
Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? May 23 $518 +$112 +22%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the May 21 $512 −$39 -8%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 21 $504 +$21 +4%
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary May 20 $498 +$77 +16%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 18 $487 −$179 -37%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 17 $500 −$498 -100%
Will Julia Letlow finish first in the first round of the Louisiana Rep May 17 $480 +$20 +4%
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? May 15 $512 −$509 -99%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 15 $505 −$504 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $123 21m
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $20 44m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $71 44m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $509 1h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $162 1h
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $538 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $538 1h
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $508 1h
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $451 1h
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $146 1h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 1h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 1h
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? SELL Yes 51¢ $312 2h
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr BUY Yes 11¢ $3 22h
Will Joyce Marie Griggs be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? BUY Yes 81¢ $9 35h
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr BUY Yes 11¢ $6 4d
Will Joyce Marie Griggs be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 6d
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr BUY Yes 11¢ $1 8d
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential ele BUY No 41¢ $34 9d
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primar SELL Yes 45¢ $397 9d
Will "The Balusters" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? BUY No 75¢ $150 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $204 10d
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential ele BUY No 41¢ $28 10d
Will "Giant" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? BUY Yes 10¢ $37 10d
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential ele BUY No 41¢ $87 10d
Will "Giant" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 10d
Will "Giant" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10d
Will "Giant" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 10d
Will "Giant" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? BUY Yes 10¢ $40 10d
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr BUY Yes 11¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,286.81 · official $20,287.17 (match) · 272 history records