trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $37 | $37 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 10 | $79 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 09 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 08 | $26 | −$1 | -3% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 05 | $37 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | +19% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 03 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C | Apr 10 | $29 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 09 | $29 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 08 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? | Apr 06 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run | Apr 04 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will FDP be part of the next German government? | Apr 04 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Apr 04 | $8 | +$5 | +58% |
| Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 04 | $14 | $0 | -1% |
| Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? | Apr 03 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| 2025 March hottest on record? | Apr 03 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? | Apr 02 | $25 | $0 | +2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -0.6% | -10.0% | 50% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +2.0% | -7.7% | 38% | 12% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +2.0% | -7.7% | 38% | 12% | -9.6% |
| all | 23 | +3.5% | -6.3% | 48% | 9% | -8.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.3% | 9% | -8.6% |
| 10% | -15.3% | 4% | -17.3% |
| 15% | -23.5% | 4% | -25.3% |
| 20% | -31.0% | 4% | -32.6% |