Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:51:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

04 0x0486…a55c other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$198 (+29%) realized +$195 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip

Net edge+33%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$87per market

Trades / day1.3pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+32.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+46.5%	+32.6%	100%	100%	+31.6%
≤30d	4	+46.5%	+32.6%	100%	100%	+31.6%
≤90d	4	+46.5%	+32.6%	100%	100%	+31.6%
all	4	+46.5%	+32.6%	100%	100%	+31.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+32.6%	100%	+31.6%
10%	+19.9%	75%	+19.0%
15%	+8.3%	75%	+7.5%
20%	-2.3%	25%	-3.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +45% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +47% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$48 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$272

Realized+$195

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)4 / 8

History coverage7d

Avg bet$87

Trades / day1.3

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	61¢	64¢	$200	$209	+$9 (+4%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$52	$52	+$0 (+1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	19¢	10¢	$12	$6	−$6 (-50%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	42¢	42¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$100	+$12	+12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$101	+$48	+48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$141	+$71	+50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$80	+$61	+76%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	19¢	$12	9m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	55¢	$101	1h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	BUY Yes	42¢	$5	9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$52	9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$100	22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$141	31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$80	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.06 · official $272.06 (match) · 13 history records