Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:43:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
04 0x0486…fe75 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$203 (+24%) realized +$206 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip
Net edge+43%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 51d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$20
sports 38% +$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+42.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +74.6% +57.9% 100% 100% +58.2%
≤30d 3 +57.8% +42.8% 100% 100% +34.8%
≤90d 3 +57.8% +42.8% 100% 100% +34.8%
all 3 +57.8% +42.8% 100% 100% +34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.8% 100% +34.8%
10% +29.1% 100% +21.9%
15% +16.6% 33% +10.1%
20% +5.2% 33% -0.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$407
Realized+$206
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage51d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-07-01? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $101 +$23 +23%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 28 $102 +$129 +126%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 30 $212 +$51 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 78¢ $60 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 21h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 29d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 80¢ $212 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $407.03 · official $407.03 (match) · 11 history records