Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
04 0x0484…e0ee world 240 markets active 1h ago coverage 217d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$23,998 (+14%) realized +$27,530 · open −$3,532
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%113W / 112L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$733per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$446est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$4,225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$205
7 days+$8,932
14 days+$9,882
30 days+$11,006
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$14,494
sports 12% −$1,205
other 6% +$2,601
politics 1% +$838
finance 0% −$336
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +81.0% +63.7% 52% 52% +57.5%
≤30d 78 +98.2% +79.4% 49% 45% +26.5%
≤90d 183 +37.0% +23.9% 44% 39% -0.0%
all 225 +44.3% +30.6% 50% 44% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +30.6% 44% +3.9%
10% ← realistic here +18.1% 37% -6.1%
15% +6.7% 32% -15.2%
20% -3.8% 27% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$554) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late +71% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$411 vs −$239 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$4,225
Realized+$27,530
Unrealized−$3,532
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses113 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$446
Open positions14
Markets (closed)225 / 240
History coverage217d
Avg bet$733
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 81¢ 99¢ $1,063 $1,297 +$233 (+22%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 33¢ 16¢ $1,772 $892 −$880 (-50%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 47¢ 14¢ $2,629 $781 −$1,849 (-70%)
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? No 86¢ 85¢ $430 $425 −$5 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 67¢ 49¢ $503 $368 −$135 (-27%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $312 $182 −$130 (-42%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 35¢ 14¢ $195 $78 −$118 (-60%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $216 $70 −$146 (-68%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $88 $51 −$37 (-42%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $72 $24 −$48 (-67%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 18¢ 1¢ $206 $9 −$197 (-96%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 37¢ 74¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+101%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 4¢ 0¢ $219 $3 −$217 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $276 +$693 +251%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $720 −$298 -42%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $186 −$185 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $209 −$204 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $32 −$31 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $1,330 −$70 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $434 +$429 +99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $10,578 −$129 -1%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $187 +$313 +167%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $127 −$125 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $90 +$783 +870%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $11 +$39 +365%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $236 +$376 +160%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $215 +$1,157 +537%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $92 −$90 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2,769 +$3,255 +118%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $135 +$505 +375%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $133 +$23 +17%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $151 +$153 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,427 +$1,873 +131%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $306 −$3 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $392 −$316 -80%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $2,645 +$893 +34%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $25 +$152 +613%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $330 +$10 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 08 $105 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $120 +$66 +55%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? Jun 08 $172 −$51 -30%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 08 $111 −$30 -26%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 08 $117 −$43 -36%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $394 −$138 -35%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $12 +$5 +39%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1,830 +$614 +34%
NBA Finals: Game 1 Winner to be Champion? Jun 08 $20 −$11 -54%
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? Jun 08 $21 −$19 -88%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 08 $9 −$7 -77%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $426 −$82 -19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $592 +$60 +10%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 07 $136 +$61 +45%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $182 −$136 -74%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $33 +$14 +41%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $287 +$104 +36%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $456 +$227 +50%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $506 +$254 +50%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $2,010 +$1,766 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $969 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $44 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $13 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $276 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $101 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $131 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $55 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $50 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $92 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $10 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,225.35 · official $4,225.36 (match) · 2693 history records