Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:21:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0484…9321 crypto 267 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (393 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$155,467 (+766%) realized +$155,468 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate16%111W / 593L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day392.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$294
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (393 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-68.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 618 -74.3% -76.7% 11% 9% -54.9%
≤30d 704 -65.6% -68.9% 16% 12% -44.0%
≤90d 704 -65.6% -68.9% 16% 12% -44.0%
all 704 -65.6% -68.9% 16% 12% -44.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover392.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -68.9% 12% -44.0%
10% ← realistic here -71.8% 9% -49.4%
15% -74.6% 7% -54.3%
20% -77.0% 4% -58.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$29 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$155,468
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses111 / 593
Open positions1
Markets (closed)704 / 267
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$76
Trades / day392.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 704 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Down 36¢ 32¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$137 -290%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$31 -116%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $55 −$17 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$58 -295%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $44 −$38 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$23 -166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$7 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$63 -233%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$42 -351%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$27 -138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$18 -135%
Solana Up or Down - November 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $61 −$178 -294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$38 -177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$46 -263%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 12, 11AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 7AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$60 -123%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $55 −$61 -111%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $7 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $7 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.76 · official $7.80 · 3500 history records