Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:17:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0483…87ac other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$23 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$219
7 days−$40
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$45
sports 17% +$97
world 8% −$60
crypto 5% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -29.3% -36.0% 32% 32% -16.5%
≤30d 19 -29.3% -36.0% 32% 32% -16.5%
≤90d 19 -29.3% -36.0% 32% 32% -16.5%
all 20 -27.0% -34.0% 35% 35% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.0% 35% -15.7%
10% -40.3% 30% -23.8%
15% -46.0% 30% -31.1%
20% -51.3% 20% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$22 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)20 / 24
History coverage168d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 4? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$127 +250%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 4? Jan 05 $20 +$3 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.75 · official $231.75 (match) · 52 history records