trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 19 | -29.3% | -36.0% | 32% | 32% | -16.5% |
| ≤30d | 19 | -29.3% | -36.0% | 32% | 32% | -16.5% |
| ≤90d | 19 | -29.3% | -36.0% | 32% | 32% | -16.5% |
| all | 20 | -27.0% | -34.0% | 35% | 35% | -15.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -34.0% | 35% | -15.7% |
| 10% | -40.3% | 30% | -23.8% |
| 15% | -46.0% | 30% | -31.1% |
| 20% | -51.3% | 20% | -37.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 20¢ | $100 | $123 | +$23 (+23%) |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 69¢ | 68¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? | Yes | 20¢ | 20¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-99%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 21 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 21 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Jun 21 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? | Jun 21 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? | Jun 21 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 21 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? | Jun 21 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 4? | Jun 21 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Jun 21 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 21 | $101 | −$101 | -100% |
| Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Jun 21 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)? | Jun 21 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)? | Jun 21 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $101 | +$48 | +48% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $30 | +$20 | +67% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $20 | +$8 | +40% |
| Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $10 | +$25 | +250% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $20 | +$18 | +90% |
| Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $51 | +$127 | +250% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 4? | Jan 05 | $20 | +$3 | +16% |