Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x0482…6b0a
world · 200 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$40,323 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$25,410 · open −$1,687
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15,353
Realized+$25,410
Unrealized−$1,687
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses60 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions52
Markets (closed)155 / 200
History coverage22d
Avg bet$1,146
Trades / day154.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 52 History 155 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,355
7 days+$9,266
14 days+$9,190
30 days+$25,410
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $2,627 $2,743 +$115 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2,695 $2,643 −$52 (-2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $2,035 $1,810 −$225 (-11%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,202 $1,247 +$46 (+4%)
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $800 $1,017 +$217 (+27%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 16¢ 28¢ $359 $625 +$266 (+74%)
Will any AI model reach 1530 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Yes 61¢ 66¢ $575 $624 +$49 (+9%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $611 $525 −$86 (-14%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $602 $515 −$86 (-14%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 16¢ 32¢ $203 $390 +$186 (+92%)
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 18¢ 9¢ $755 $385 −$369 (-49%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Yes 41¢ 32¢ $356 $284 −$72 (-20%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $351 $274 −$76 (-22%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $361 $238 −$123 (-34%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? No 2¢ 1¢ $319 $200 −$119 (-37%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? No 18¢ 16¢ $223 $194 −$29 (-13%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026? Yes 12¢ 19¢ $124 $193 +$69 (+56%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $113 $151 +$38 (+33%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $134 $138 +$4 (+3%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $94 $123 +$29 (+31%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $162 $122 −$41 (-25%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 23¢ 20¢ $133 $118 −$14 (-11%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $399 $92 −$307 (-77%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $122 $89 −$33 (-27%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $116 $85 −$31 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $576 −$576 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 12 $68 −$656 -959%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $3,008 +$2,109 +70%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $649 +$667 +103%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $1,000 −$333 -33%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $2,409 +$359 +15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $315 +$280 +89%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $2,350 −$153 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $406 +$424 +104%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $8,910 +$1,539 +17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,371 +$768 +56%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $1,191 −$706 -59%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $65 −$63 -96%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 10 $237 +$172 +73%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $678 −$429 -63%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $2,370 −$63 -3%
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 Jun 10 $452 +$16 +4%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $3,000 +$264 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $2,429 −$921 -38%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $187 −$187 -100%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 09 $109 +$141 +130%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $552 +$566 +103%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $848 +$55 +6%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $270 −$57 -21%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 09 $643 −$187 -29%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $583 −$40 -7%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $1,405 −$112 -8%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1,274 −$218 -17%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con Jun 09 $327 +$42 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $299 −$15 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $510 −$77 -15%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $11 +$1 +10%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $545 −$531 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $1,395 −$655 -47%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $497 +$976 +196%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $183 +$841 +460%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $208 +$1,223 +588%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $940 +$455 +48%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $3,696 +$3,028 +82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $7,105 −$871 -12%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440? Jun 06 $473 +$1,511 +320%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460? Jun 05 $413 +$859 +208%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $187 −$180 -96%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $167 −$10 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $373 −$166 -45%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $33 +$1 +4%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 04 $89 −$28 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 04 $802 −$774 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 04 $280 +$7 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 71% +$21,250
tech 13% −$584
other 7% +$3,823
politics 6% −$1,551
crypto 2% +$2,888
finance 2% −$340
sports 0% −$531
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $318 9m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $447 15m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $609 18m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $351 19m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $221 20m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,001 20m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 20m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 20¢ $611 20m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $622 22m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $600 24m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 27m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 41m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 44m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 56m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 56m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 56m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 56m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $181 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 10¢ $121 2h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $520 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 12¢ $613 2h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +32.7% +20.1% 50% 41% +16.2%
≤30d 155 +26.3% +14.3% 39% 32% +9.6%
≤90d 155 +26.3% +14.3% 39% 32% +9.6%
all 155 +26.3% +14.3% 39% 32% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover154.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.3% 32% +9.6%
10% +3.4% 27% -0.9%
15% ← realistic here -6.6% 26% -10.5%
20% -15.8% 24% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,353.36 · official $15,245.66 (match) · 3500 history records