Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:39:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
04 0x0480…0a91 sports 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,719 (-17%) realized −$12,793 · open +$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%84W / 82L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$449per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$285est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days+$442
14 days+$442
30 days+$2,396
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$14,396
other 8% +$1,886
world 1% −$436
crypto 0% −$107
economics 0% +$16
politics 0% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +20.0% +8.6% 56% 44% -3.6%
≤30d 12 +40.7% +27.3% 67% 58% +15.2%
≤90d 49 +10.2% -0.3% 53% 49% -22.1%
all 166 +11.3% +0.7% 51% 49% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 49% -25.7%
10% -8.9% 46% -32.8%
15% -17.7% 42% -39.3%
20% -25.8% 37% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$530) neutral
Persistence
early +22% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$315 vs −$484 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$1,244
Realized−$12,793
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses84 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$285
Open positions4
Markets (closed)166 / 171
History coverage247d
Avg bet$449
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $690 $696 +$6 (+1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie Cameron Norrie 47¢ 60¢ $289 $366 +$77 (+27%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $150 $157 +$7 (+5%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $40 $24 −$16 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart Jun 29 $384 −$378 -98%
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 29 $129 +$406 +315%
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Jun 29 $356 −$350 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $719 −$708 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $2,103 +$105 +5%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,065 +$1,077 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $696 −$696 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $485 +$471 +97%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $833 +$515 +62%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,014 +$871 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $697 +$677 +97%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $326 +$406 +125%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $6,375 −$6,281 -98%
Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $234 −$229 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $221 +$807 +365%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $658 +$169 +26%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse May 09 $304 +$88 +29%
Madrid Open: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Apr 28 $316 −$310 -98%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 26 $10 +$1 +12%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M Apr 26 $308 −$302 -98%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $662 +$547 +83%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 25 $297 +$15 +5%
Madrid Open: Alexander Bublik vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 25 $502 −$492 -98%
Madrid Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Alexander Blockx Apr 25 $179 +$120 +67%
Madrid Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Tommy Paul Apr 24 $311 −$306 -98%
Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alex de Minaur Apr 24 $280 −$276 -99%
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Marin Cilic Apr 24 $100 −$3 -3%
Madrid Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Alejandro Tabilo Apr 24 $150 +$295 +197%
Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmic Apr 24 $200 −$196 -98%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 23 $394 −$388 -98%
Madrid Open: Patrick Kypson vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 23 $173 +$182 +105%
Madrid Open: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Reilly Opelka Apr 23 $260 −$256 -98%
Madrid Open: Cristian Garin vs Alexander Blockx Apr 23 $453 +$474 +105%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $500 −$488 -98%
Barcelona Open: Andrey Rublev vs Arthur Fils Apr 20 $169 +$151 +90%
Oeiras 3: Henrique Rocha vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Apr 17 $157 +$179 +114%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo Apr 17 $250 +$215 +86%
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton Apr 17 $380 +$685 +180%
Santa Cruz: Juan Bautista Torres vs Juan Carlos Prado Apr 17 $110 +$80 +73%
Barcelona Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Apr 14 $200 −$197 -99%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Anastasia Potapova vs Donna Vekic Apr 12 $125 +$99 +79%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Valentin Vacherot Apr 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Bublik Apr 10 $285 +$325 +114%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $323 +$278 +86%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Blockx Apr 08 $645 −$636 -99%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Tomas Etcheverry vs Terence Atmane Apr 08 $31 −$30 -98%
Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Mar 28 $166 −$166 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Cameron Norrie 47¢ $294 52m
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 27¢ $102 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 57¢ $282 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska SELL Mananchaya Sawangkaew 100¢ $535 2h
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 13¢ $154 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 24¢ $129 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 46¢ $356 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $709 19h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 50¢ $719 28h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 36h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 100¢ $2,208 36h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 95¢ $2,103 37h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 37h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,142 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 44¢ $696 38h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $111 38h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $807 38h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $955 43h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 50¢ $485 46h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $863 2d
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $1,348 2d
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 61¢ $833 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $829 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $876 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,885 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $697 14d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,014 14d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 9¢ $31 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils BUY Gael Monfils 23¢ $1,007 34d
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils BUY Gael Monfils 56¢ $5,069 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,243.60 · official $1,232.43 (match) · 325 history records