Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:33:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x047e…427f sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$51 (-14%) realized −$145 · open +$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$71
other 9% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -36.2% -42.3% 40% 40% -41.9%
≤30d 5 -36.2% -42.3% 40% 40% -41.9%
≤90d 5 -36.2% -42.3% 40% 40% -41.9%
all 5 -36.2% -42.3% 40% 40% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.3% 40% -41.9%
10% -47.8% 40% -47.4%
15% -52.8% 20% -52.5%
20% -57.5% 20% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$30 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$294
Realized−$145
Unrealized+$94
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 43¢ 90¢ $80 $168 +$88 (+109%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 46¢ 58¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+27%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 42¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 63¢ 62¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $30 +$8 +26%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$28 +93%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $31 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $30 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $30 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $30 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 8h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $30 20h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $30 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 60¢ $30 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 20h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 44¢ $31 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.39 · official $294.39 (match) · 13 history records