Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x047b…83b1 weather 198 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$515 (-31%) realized −$474 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%84W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$537
14 days−$539
30 days−$555
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 48% −$82
sports 31% −$471
crypto 18% −$53
other 3% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -24.3% -31.5% 41% 37% -66.3%
≤30d 165 -13.8% -22.0% 46% 41% -44.1%
≤90d 182 -11.5% -19.9% 46% 40% -43.3%
all 182 -11.5% -19.9% 46% 40% -43.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 40% -43.3%
10% -27.6% 36% -48.7%
15% -34.6% 34% -53.7%
20% -41.0% 28% -58.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$474
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses84 / 98
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions16
Markets (closed)182 / 198
History coverage58d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? No 67¢ 66¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? No 57¢ 58¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? No 58¢ 56¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? No 58¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? No 60¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Yes 38¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? No 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? No 45¢ 1¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? No 72¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 16? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 16? No 82¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +45%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $24 −$13 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$4 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $6 +$4 +59%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$5 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$22 +285%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $400 −$395 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$8 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$5 +58%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 +$2 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 11 $10 +$5 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$6 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -91%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$4 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$8 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $6 +$4 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 20m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 57¢ $3 41m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 84¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 59¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 12¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 58¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 57¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 58¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 58¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 59¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 12¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 59¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 9¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 9¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.85 · official $48.86 (match) · 605 history records