Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:04:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0479…8177 crypto 907 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (127 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$182 (+4%) realized +$182 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate76%688W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day127.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$129
7 days−$96
14 days−$75
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$79
other 15% −$51
sports 1% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (127 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 809 +0.9% -8.7% 76% 72% -11.9%
≤30d 907 +1.4% -8.2% 76% 72% -11.1%
≤90d 907 +1.4% -8.2% 76% 72% -11.1%
all 907 +1.4% -8.2% 76% 72% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover127.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 72% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 44% -19.6%
15% -25.0% 24% -27.4%
20% -32.4% 12% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$182
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses688 / 219
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)907 / 907
History coverage8d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day127.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 907 Trades
no open positions (114 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$21 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$25 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $156 −$118 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$2 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $28 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $7 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $16 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $22 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1865 history records