Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:51:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
04 0x0479…f2dd other 602 markets active 2h ago coverage 518d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$931 (+0%) realized +$878 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate87%521W / 76L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$446per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,491now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$450
7 days+$475
14 days+$518
30 days+$756
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$141
world 21% −$1,536
politics 20% +$1,314
culture 14% −$658
sports 9% +$1,363
tech 3% +$289
economics 1% +$102
finance 1% +$50
crypto 0% −$12
weather 0% −$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +19.2% +7.8% 100% 67% +10.8%
≤30d 16 +10.9% +0.3% 94% 38% -0.1%
≤90d 32 +9.5% -0.9% 97% 34% -0.9%
all 597 +3.5% -6.4% 87% 18% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 18% -9.2%
10% -15.3% 9% -17.9%
15% -23.5% 5% -25.8%
20% -31.0% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$562) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$172 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

518d coverage
Net worth$1,491
Realized+$878
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses521 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions5
Markets (closed)597 / 602
History coverage518d
Avg bet$446
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 597 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 91¢ 90¢ $558 $555 −$3 (-1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $457 $480 +$23 (+5%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 76¢ 84¢ $316 $345 +$29 (+9%)
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27? No 99¢ 99¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? No 90¢ 99¢ $41 $45 +$4 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 24 $1,634 +$402 +25%
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 24 $197 +$48 +24%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $286 +$25 +9%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $770 +$30 +4%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 16 $137 +$3 +2%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 40 or more p Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will any player score 60+ points in any game during the 2026 NBA Final Jun 15 $69 +$1 +1%
Will any player score 50+ points in any game during the 2026 NBA Final Jun 15 $85 +$3 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 15 $69 +$79 +114%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 15 $231 +$4 +2%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Jun 15 $1,279 +$123 +10%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 10 $1,433 +$38 +3%
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? Jun 07 $196 +$89 +45%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 07 $264 +$36 +14%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 07 $425 +$75 +18%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of th May 12 $200 +$35 +18%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30? May 12 $267 +$33 +12%
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? May 12 $364 +$36 +10%
Trump announces Attorney General pick by April 10, 2026? Apr 16 $15 +$3 +19%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win more than 62.5 regular season games Apr 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win more than 19.5 regular season games in 2025 Apr 16 $180 +$20 +11%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division? Apr 16 $195 +$5 +3%
Will the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA? Apr 16 $181 +$40 +22%
Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in Apr 16 $293 +$7 +2%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Apr 16 $259 +$20 +8%
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? Apr 06 $181 +$14 +8%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 06 $307 +$4 +1%
ICE shooter charged by March 31? Apr 06 $546 +$54 +10%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans make the NBA Playoffs? Mar 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs? Mar 29 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division? Mar 29 $554 +$15 +3%
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran strike on Qatar by March 31, 2026? Mar 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Iran strike on US military by February 28? Mar 18 $857 −$857 -100%
Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Aca Mar 16 $72 +$6 +9%
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $429 +$37 +9%
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 16 $974 +$79 +8%
Will "Scream 7" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Mar 14 $206 +$11 +5%
Will "Scream 7" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Mar 14 $288 +$4 +2%
Will Bernie Sanders applaud during Trump's State of the Union? Feb 27 $275 +$15 +6%
Will the United States win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Wint Feb 23 $432 −$432 -100%
Will Germany win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympi Feb 23 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Win Feb 23 $384 +$284 +74%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $808 +$17 +2%
Winter Games 2026: Norway (-4.5) vs. USA (+4.5) gold medals? Feb 23 $919 +$81 +9%
Will "Good Luck, Have Fun, Don't Die" score at least 90 on the Rotten Feb 17 $41 $0 +1%
Will "GOAT" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Feb 17 $121 +$1 +1%
Will "Cold Storage" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomet Feb 17 $291 +$9 +3%
Will "GOAT" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Feb 17 $751 +$31 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 91¢ $560 1h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 84¢ $269 1h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 82¢ $663 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY No 98¢ $142 7d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 98¢ $137 8d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY No 86¢ $144 8d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $770 8d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 52¢ $49 8d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 80¢ $197 8d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 80¢ $41 8d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 80¢ $210 8d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 8d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 80¢ $315 8d
Will any player score 60+ points in any game during the 2026 NBA Final BUY No 99¢ $43 14d
Will any player score 50+ points in any game during the 2026 NBA Final BUY No 96¢ $85 14d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL Yes 84¢ $44 14d
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? BUY No 91¢ $1,279 14d
Will any player score 60+ points in any game during the 2026 NBA Final BUY No 99¢ $26 14d
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27? BUY No 99¢ $66 14d
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? BUY No 99¢ $44 14d
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 40 or more p BUY No 99¢ $10 16d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,433 16d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $41 16d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? BUY Yes 43¢ $69 16d
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? SELL No 92¢ $285 16d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 85¢ $7 41d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 85¢ $13 42d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 85¢ $49 42d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 85¢ $44 42d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 77¢ $16 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,490.57 · official $1,492.63 (match) · 2111 history records