Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:29:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x0478…9041
crypto · 1117 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,922 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16,343 · open −$113
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$587
Realized−$16,343
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses632 / 780
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1412 / 1117
History coverage25d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day120.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 1412 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13,632
7 days−$14,758
14 days−$16,652
30 days−$16,343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $300 $307 +$7 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $400 $280 −$120 (-30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $175 $0 −$175 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $450 $0 −$450 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 14 $38 −$47 -124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $181 −$181 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$1,701
finance 0% −$157
other 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $204 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $462 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $207 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $464 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $205 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $206 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $206 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $205 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $122 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $463 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $207 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $108 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $464 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $204 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $300 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $298 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $392 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $330 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $548 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $85 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $457 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 724 -42.2% -47.7% 35% 32% -20.1%
≤30d 1412 -21.7% -29.2% 45% 41% -17.9%
≤90d 1412 -21.7% -29.2% 45% 41% -17.9%
all 1412 -21.7% -29.2% 45% 41% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover120.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.2% 41% -17.9%
10% ← realistic here -36.0% 37% -25.8%
15% -42.2% 31% -32.9%
20% -47.8% 22% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $586.56 · official $586.56 (match) · 3500 history records