Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:58:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
04 0x0477…631c sports 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$20 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%70W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$131
7 days+$175
14 days+$319
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$130
crypto 23% −$209
other 14% +$165
weather 9% −$116
economics 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +34.9% +22.1% 58% 58% +6.5%
≤30d 113 +16.1% +5.1% 51% 50% -2.9%
≤90d 140 +6.1% -4.0% 45% 44% -3.9%
all 153 +5.2% -4.8% 46% 44% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 44% -9.8%
10% -13.9% 44% -18.4%
15% -22.2% 42% -26.3%
20% -29.9% 36% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses70 / 83
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions6
Markets (closed)153 / 165
History coverage534d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 55¢ 56¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 55¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 59¢ 60¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 20¢ 31¢ $15 $24 +$9 (+57%)
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Martin Damm 61¢ 34¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-43%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $5 +$40 +786%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 $0 -2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $30 +$21 +69%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 +$34 +164%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $21 −$21 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $51 −$4 -7%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 +$35 +70%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $36 +$54 +152%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -3%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +57%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$26 +129%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 +$35 +340%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$17 +109%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $51 +$36 +71%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$11 -56%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$18 +87%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $117 +$55 +47%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +197%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $15 +$12 +79%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$7 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $25 −$23 -91%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $25 +$17 +66%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $25 +$14 +54%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $30 +$19 +64%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $22 −$17 -74%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $30 −$30 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $51 +$36 +70%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $30 +$24 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 08 $30 −$30 -98%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $20 +$12 +57%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $61 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $25 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $25 3h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 61¢ $30 3h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) SELL Chicago White Sox 60¢ $15 14h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 94¢ $11 14h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 94¢ $9 14h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 94¢ $21 14h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 94¢ $10 14h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 73¢ $1 15h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 73¢ $24 15h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 73¢ $2 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 89¢ $54 15h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 17h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $30 17h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $20 17h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 60¢ $21 22h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belg BUY 35¢ $20 25h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $51 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 48¢ $20 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $20 37h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $86 37h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 40h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $20 47h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY 38¢ $20 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06- BUY 41¢ $20 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 50¢ $15 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $41 2d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 39¢ $36 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.75 · official $156.77 (match) · 322 history records