Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0476…50b3 sports 321 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$71 (+1%) realized +$45 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate61%172W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$670now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$107
14 days−$23
30 days−$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$74
crypto 29% −$322
other 6% −$74
world 5% +$51
weather 2% −$6
finance 1% +$80
tech 1% +$28
politics 0% −$4
economics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -20.6% -28.2% 39% 26% -19.1%
≤30d 279 -1.1% -10.5% 61% 52% -11.0%
≤90d 283 -1.7% -11.1% 61% 51% -11.0%
all 283 -1.7% -11.1% 61% 51% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 51% -11.0%
10% -19.6% 37% -19.5%
15% -27.4% 27% -27.3%
20% -34.5% 19% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$22 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$670
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses172 / 111
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions38
Markets (closed)283 / 321
History coverage68d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 12¢ 32¢ $40 $109 +$69 (+173%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 100¢ $8 $55 +$48 (+605%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? No 94¢ 94¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? No 93¢ 92¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June? Yes 14¢ 35¢ $10 $25 +$15 (+146%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 80¢ 94¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 43¢ 46¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $100 $20 −$80 (-80%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 46¢ 38¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? No 95¢ 94¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? No 95¢ 94¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? No 94¢ 94¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-45%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 92¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 81¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? No 93¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? No 93¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? No 91¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 90¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? No 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? No 88¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -91%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 17 $51 −$3 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $41 +$24 +60%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $206 +$14 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $20 +$8 +39%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $264 +$27 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -80%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +104%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $30 +$20 +67%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $30 −$11 -35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $20 −$5 -25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $20 −$11 -54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -15%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $10 +$3 +31%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $30 +$24 +79%
Modena: Giorgia Pedone vs Mayar Sherif Jun 09 $30 +$3 +11%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $30 +$9 +31%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $20 +$5 +26%
Modena: Victoria Bosio vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 09 $30 +$9 +29%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $313 −$53 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $30 +$23 +76%
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 09 $51 +$54 +105%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $205 +$48 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +25%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $30 +$24 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 09 $31 +$13 +41%
Ilkley: Kayla Day vs Mary Stoiana Jun 09 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $201 +$31 +16%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $81 −$32 -39%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $61 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 08 $88 −$2 -2%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $21 −$4 -19%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 08 $30 −$1 -3%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 08 $30 −$3 -9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 08 $30 −$3 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 94¢ $5 7m
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 94¢ $5 7m
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 94¢ $5 7m
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 94¢ $5 7m
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 94¢ $5 7m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 88¢ $5 7m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 93¢ $5 7m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 88¢ $5 7m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 91¢ $5 7m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 93¢ $5 7m
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 95¢ $5 18m
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 89¢ $5 18m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 90¢ $5 18m
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 95¢ $5 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 18m
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 94¢ $5 18m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 90¢ $5 18m
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 94¢ $5 18m
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 95¢ $5 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 18m
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 89¢ $5 18m
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 95¢ $5 18m
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 95¢ $5 18m
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 95¢ $5 18m
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 94¢ $5 18m
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY No 84¢ $5 34m
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY No 84¢ $5 34m
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY No 84¢ $5 39m
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY No 84¢ $5 39m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY No 93¢ $5 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $670.13 · official $669.85 (match) · 859 history records