Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:09:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0476…459b crypto 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$142 (-4%) realized −$142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day37.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$423
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -22.5% -29.9% 45% 45% -22.2%
≤30d 29 -22.5% -29.9% 45% 45% -22.2%
≤90d 29 -22.5% -29.9% 45% 45% -22.2%
all 29 -22.5% -29.9% 45% 45% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.9% 45% -22.2%
10% ← realistic here -36.6% 28% -29.7%
15% -42.7% 17% -36.5%
20% -48.3% 14% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$53 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage3d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day37.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $120 +$22 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $111 +$23 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $413 −$300 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $151 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $830 −$77 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $400 +$277 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $205 −$150 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $302 +$35 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $102 −$46 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $102 +$46 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET Jun 25 $148 −$141 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$3 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $21 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $30 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $82 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $310 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $159 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records