Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
04 0x0475…ed7a crypto 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,303 (-3%) realized −$1,250 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%24W / 69L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$437per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,196
7 days+$4,196
14 days+$4,717
30 days−$656
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$762
other 20% +$1,977
sports 16% −$3,276
crypto 8% −$782
politics 0% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +907.3% +811.3% 50% 50% +931.8%
≤30d 18 +21.7% +10.1% 11% 11% +2.0%
≤90d 93 +3.9% -6.0% 26% 25% -7.0%
all 93 +3.9% -6.0% 26% 25% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 25% -7.0%
10% -15.0% 22% -15.9%
15% -23.2% 20% -24.0%
20% -30.8% 20% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$703 vs −$265 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$403
Realized−$1,250
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses24 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions5
Markets (closed)93 / 98
History coverage64d
Avg bet$437
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $106 $130 +$24 (+23%)
Will Félix Auger-Aliassime be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $150 $114 −$36 (-24%)
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $121 $90 −$31 (-26%)
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $29 $24 −$5 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $228 +$4,371 +1915%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $180 −$175 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $3,400 +$577 +17%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $30 −$29 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd Jun 04 $111 −$108 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $796 −$781 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 29 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $3,627 −$1,763 -49%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 28 $317 −$130 -41%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $275 −$267 -97%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $285 −$280 -98%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $85 −$83 -97%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 24 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $579 −$569 -98%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 23 $315 −$307 -98%
Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $445 −$434 -98%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $167 −$85 -51%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $114 −$111 -97%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $1,056 −$1,035 -98%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 14 $540 +$25 +5%
Will Rickie Fowler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $107 −$104 -97%
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $29 −$28 -97%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Sungjae Im win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $564 −$418 -74%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 10 $1,657 +$2,782 +168%
Will Rickie Fowler win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 10 $339 −$330 -97%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 10 $715 −$700 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 10 $1,562 −$1,542 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Botic van de Zandschul May 10 $304 +$213 +70%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo May 10 $304 +$295 +97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $644 −$632 -98%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) May 10 $203 −$200 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar May 10 $191 −$187 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev May 10 $99 −$97 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $608 +$1,741 +286%
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? May 09 $801 −$787 -98%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 09 $328 −$320 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $400 +$2,932 +733%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 06 $229 −$229 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $1,625 −$868 -53%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 28 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Félix Auger-Aliassime be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $154 1h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $124 1h
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 94¢ $4,599 12h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 13¢ $180 16h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 6¢ $161 3d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 3d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $109 10d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $30 10d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $30 10d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 8¢ $28 10d
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd BUY Yes 4¢ $111 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 44¢ $307 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 32¢ $287 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 36¢ $510 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $797 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev BUY Quentin Halys 2¢ $36 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 25¢ $36 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 28¢ $156 24d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $156 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic BUY Valentin Royer 3¢ $31 25d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $31 25d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $38 26d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.79 · official $402.79 (match) · 444 history records