Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0474…a518 crypto 375 markets active 2d ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (284 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$295 (-3%) realized −$295 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%130W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day283.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$693
14 days−$766
30 days−$766
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$766
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (284 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 -57.0% -61.1% 21% 19% -36.0%
≤30d 375 -14.8% -22.9% 35% 33% -17.2%
≤90d 375 -14.8% -22.9% 35% 33% -17.2%
all 375 -14.8% -22.9% 35% 33% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover283.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.9% 33% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -30.3% 31% -25.2%
15% -37.0% 29% -32.4%
20% -43.2% 26% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$19 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$295
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses130 / 245
Open positions0
Markets (closed)375 / 375
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day283.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 375 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$10 +115%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$6 +63%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$6 -57%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$1 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$24 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$18 -75%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $38 −$36 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $72 +$28 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$41 +98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $29 −$28 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$28 +95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$21 +126%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$8 -31%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$2 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$8 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$9 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$10 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records