Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:57:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
04 0x0472…e359 politics 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 315d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate27%13W / 36L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$2
politics 18% +$1
other 14% +$1
sports 13% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 12 +20.9% +9.3% 25% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 12 +20.9% +9.3% 25% 8% -9.0%
all 49 +5.4% -4.6% 27% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 4% -9.1%
10% -13.7% 2% -17.8%
15% -22.1% 2% -25.7%
20% -29.7% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×7.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.91 per $1 lost it wins $5.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

315d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage315d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $61 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $59 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $53 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $2 $0 -3%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 30 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Jan 30 $6 $0 -3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 30 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $8 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 01 $1 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 29 $9 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $7 $0 +7%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Sep 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $4100 August 11–17? Aug 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Aug 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 14 $12 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 425–439 times August 8–August 15? Aug 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $68 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 260–274 times August 8–August 15? Aug 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 10 $45 $0 +1%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 10 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $51 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $31 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $24 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $21 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $31 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $18 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $31 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $31 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $30 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $1 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $30 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 67¢ $29 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $28 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $14 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $7 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $23 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $14 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $17 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $19 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $11 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $30 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $23 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $23 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.10 · official $31.11 (match) · 310 history records