Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:08:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0472…c3bf sports 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$480 (-12%) realized −$506 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%29W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$222
14 days−$513
30 days−$513
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$371
other 20% −$3
crypto 5% −$34
world 2% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +1.1% -8.6% 60% 56% -15.5%
≤30d 51 +1.9% -7.8% 57% 53% -21.3%
≤90d 51 +1.9% -7.8% 57% 53% -21.3%
all 51 +1.9% -7.8% 57% 53% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 53% -21.3%
10% -16.6% 45% -28.8%
15% -24.7% 37% -35.7%
20% -32.1% 25% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$78 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$506
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses29 / 22
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage8d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 81¢ $133 $159 +$26 (+20%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 44¢ 44¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $232 +$34 +15%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $41 −$36 -89%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $300 +$190 +64%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $141 −$141 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $193 −$188 -97%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $64 +$136 +212%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$163 -81%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $145 −$142 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $97 +$13 +13%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $28 −$27 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $59 +$20 +34%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $19 +$11 +62%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $29 −$16 -57%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 21 $52 +$11 +20%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $84 +$70 +82%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $52 +$68 +131%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $34 +$75 +217%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 −$9 -31%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $34 +$16 +46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $40 +$10 +26%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $98 +$66 +67%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $80 +$46 +57%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $24 +$6 +26%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $24 −$19 -80%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $37 +$13 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $29 +$10 +34%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $100 +$3 +3%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $110 +$55 +50%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 19 $100 +$10 +10%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $93 −$92 -99%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $59 −$57 -96%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $30 −$25 -84%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $184 +$90 +49%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $61 +$23 +37%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $24 +$16 +67%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $24 −$24 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $30 +$36 +118%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $110 −$109 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $33 +$4 +13%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$14 +67%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $109 −$108 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$96 -95%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $243 −$242 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $59 +$43 +72%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$102 +249%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$4 +43%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $20 −$2 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 49¢ $34 24m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $21 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $134 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL Grind Back 100¢ $134 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 100¢ $3 2h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 99¢ $130 2h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL Grind Back 95¢ $133 2h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 72¢ $39 2h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 73¢ $30 2h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 67¢ $30 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed SELL REKONIX 3¢ $4 4h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 29¢ $31 4h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 21¢ $10 4h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner SELL REKONIX 100¢ $490 4h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 60¢ $300 7h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY REKONIX 45¢ $141 8h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C SELL GLYPH 2¢ $6 9h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 28¢ $4 9h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 20¢ $5 9h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 41¢ $61 9h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL Grind Back 100¢ $200 9h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 61¢ $123 9h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 32¢ $59 10h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 32¢ $4 10h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 32¢ $2 10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 14¢ $39 21h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 1¢ $3 21h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $47 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 24h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $63 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.03 · official $212.05 (match) · 148 history records