Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:32:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0471…dbf9 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-18%) realized −$8 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$13
crypto 7% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -21.2% -28.7% 12% 12% -29.2%
≤30d 17 -21.2% -28.7% 12% 12% -29.2%
≤90d 17 -21.2% -28.7% 12% 12% -29.2%
all 17 -21.2% -28.7% 12% 12% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 12% -29.2%
10% -35.6% 12% -36.0%
15% -41.8% 12% -42.2%
20% -47.5% 12% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$2 · ×5.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Open positions5
Markets (closed)17 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 +$12 +589%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 +$11 +550%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.21 · official $0.21 (match) · 24 history records