Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:13:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x046a…cfab politics 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 333d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%18W / 33L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$5
politics 26% $0
other 19% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 4% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.6% -11.0% 43% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.6% -10.1% 36% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 14 -0.6% -10.1% 36% 0% -8.8%
all 51 -0.3% -9.8% 35% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.2%
10% -18.4% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

333d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage333d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $49 −$2 -4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $41 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $48 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $47 +$2 +4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $38 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $7 −$1 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $95 +$6 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $28 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $9 $0 -3%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 03 $73 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Aug 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 02 $24 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 31 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $3 $0 +3%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1? Jul 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $14 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Jul 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jul 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jul 28 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 28 $22 $0 -1%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 27 $4 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 27 $6 $0 -4%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 26 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 26 $7 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Jul 26 $66 $0 -0%
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 26 $13 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 25? Jul 26 $8 $0 +1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Jul 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $3 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $47 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $47 16h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $49 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $40 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 72¢ $49 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 69¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 69¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 69¢ $26 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $8 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $30 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $38 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $15 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $47 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $23 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $4 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $20 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $48 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $2 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.92 · official $46.92 (match) · 169 history records