Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:38:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
04 0x0467…6939 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 413d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,060 (+60%) realized +$3,991 · open +$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$486per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$3,928
other 4% +$70
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +92.6% +74.3% 75% 75% +105.2%
all 12 +43.7% +30.0% 50% 50% +46.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.0% 50% +46.0%
10% +17.6% 50% +32.1%
15% +6.2% 50% +19.3%
20% -4.2% 50% +7.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +127% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,099 vs −$444 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

413d coverage
Net worth$459
Realized+$3,991
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage413d
Avg bet$486
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $289 $359 +$70 (+24%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $692 −$681 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $795 +$790 +99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 19 $599 +$991 +165%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $1,939 +$3,993 +206%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 22 $1,087 −$1,087 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Knicks vs. Celtics May 15 $845 −$823 -97%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers May 14 $100 +$245 +245%
Nuggets vs. Thunder May 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Celtics vs. Knicks May 13 $200 +$426 +212%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers May 12 $77 +$149 +194%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $104 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $297 11d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 46¢ $692 36d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 100¢ $1,585 40d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $203 40d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 52¢ $591 40d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 37¢ $2 42d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 37¢ $597 42d
76ers vs. Celtics SELL 76ers 100¢ $5,931 56d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY 76ers 32¢ $1,939 56d
Pacers vs. Thunder BUY Pacers 30¢ $1,087 371d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 405d
Knicks vs. Celtics SELL Knicks 1¢ $22 409d
Knicks vs. Celtics BUY Knicks 39¢ $345 410d
Knicks vs. Celtics BUY Knicks 38¢ $500 410d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Pacers 29¢ $100 411d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Nuggets 20¢ $27 411d
Celtics vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 32¢ $200 411d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 5¢ $25 412d
Cavaliers vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 34¢ $77 413d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $459.32 · official $459.32 (match) · 36 history records