Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:16:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0462…ec2d other 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$205 (-14%) realized −$217 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$296
politics 14% +$12
sports 10% +$84
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.5% -12.7% 38% 38% -24.9%
≤30d 8 -3.5% -12.7% 38% 38% -24.9%
≤90d 8 -3.5% -12.7% 38% 38% -24.9%
all 8 -3.5% -12.7% 38% 38% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 38% -24.9%
10% -21.1% 38% -32.1%
15% -28.7% 38% -38.6%
20% -35.7% 38% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$206 vs −$166 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized−$217
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $116 $115 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? No 35¢ 41¢ $78 $91 +$13 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $754 −$753 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $204 +$420 +206%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $21 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 77¢ $117 27m
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? BUY No 36¢ $27 1h
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? BUY No 35¢ $51 1h
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? BUY No 35¢ $3 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 96¢ $754 25h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 39h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 39h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 39h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $91 39h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 39h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 64¢ $21 2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $14 2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.90 · official $207.01 (match) · 18 history records