Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:02:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x045f…6650 sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$153 (-3%) realized −$153 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$950now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% −$10
other 24% −$2
sports 9% −$143
crypto 2% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 41 -20.7% -28.3% 22% 5% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 5% -13.3%
10% -35.2% 5% -21.6%
15% -41.4% 5% -29.1%
20% -47.2% 5% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$950
Realized−$153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage622d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $650 $650 −$0 (-0%)
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $300 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,059 −$2 -0%
Tigers vs. White Sox Aug 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Paperboy Prince gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Jul 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 07 $4 $0 -1%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 President’s Trophy? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 President’s Trophy? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? May 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will France win Eurovision 2025? May 02 $5 $0 -2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $2 $0 -8%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 09 $2 $0 -9%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 07 $6 $0 -1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 03 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Bruins vs. Rangers Jan 03 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 02 $21 $0 +0%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024? Jan 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Berachain launch in 2024? Jan 02 $37 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Dec 30 $107 −$107 -100%
Will there be 170,000,000-175,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. President Dec 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Heat vs. Magic Dec 27 $101 +$111 +110%
Ripple above $1.69 on December 6? Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Heat Dec 05 $38 −$38 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Dec 04 $26 +$18 +67%
WNBA: Liberty vs. Aces Game 3 Oct 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $300 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $650 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $300 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $729 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $300 4h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $730 4h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,044 4h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,045 16h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,058 16h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,059 22h
Tigers vs. White Sox BUY White Sox 45¢ $5 308d
Paperboy Prince gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York BUY Yes 0¢ $1 337d
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2 359d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 400d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5 400d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? SELL No 68¢ $4 401d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? BUY No 69¢ $4 402d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? SELL No 98¢ $5 405d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 406d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 406d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 407d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $6 407d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 408d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 98¢ $5 408d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 98¢ $5 409d
Will France win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 92¢ $5 411d
Will France win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 94¢ $5 412d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 94¢ $5 413d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 94¢ $5 414d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL No 99¢ $5 415d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $949.52 · official $949.52 (match) · 85 history records