Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
04 0x045f…c80d sports 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL −$55 (-3%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%36W / 43L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$352
14 days+$340
30 days+$340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$372
other 45% −$81
crypto 1% +$30
world 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +52.8% +38.3% 47% 44% +20.4%
≤30d 71 +49.7% +35.4% 46% 44% +18.0%
≤90d 71 +49.7% +35.4% 46% 44% +18.0%
all 79 +42.6% +29.1% 46% 43% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.1% 43% +14.3%
10% +16.7% 43% +3.3%
15% +5.4% 39% -6.6%
20% -4.9% 38% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$10 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses36 / 43
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 133
History coverage136d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 56¢ 64¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+13%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 37¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 −$5 -16%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $10 −$3 -28%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $10 +$30 +289%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe Jun 20 $5 +$14 +275%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$48 +158%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe Jun 20 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $93 −$5 -5%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score AND Will Paraguay win on 202 Jun 20 $17 +$59 +339%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +75%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $5 +$9 +179%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $65 +$4 +6%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $33 +$9 +27%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $23 −$8 -34%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$12 +72%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: B Jun 19 $11 +$15 +133%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $15 −$14 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: B Jun 18 $32 −$12 -39%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AN Jun 18 $32 +$28 +86%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $33 +$2 +5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina Jun 17 $6 +$37 +596%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $22 +$10 +45%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -93%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 +$7 +61%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France Jun 17 $11 +$19 +170%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$19 +188%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -18%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $4 +$13 +318%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND France vs. Sene Jun 17 $6 +$57 +924%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 37¢ $10 49m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 38¢ $25 51m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND B BUY 39¢ $23 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $26 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 31¢ $7 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 30¢ $7 4h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 47¢ $12 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 4h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $15 4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. BUY 19¢ $5 5h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $3 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe SELL 55¢ $15 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Will Côte d'Ivoire BUY 14¢ $15 24h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL No 42¢ $31 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $58 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $42 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $21 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $20 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $10 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe BUY 27¢ $5 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe BUY 26¢ $5 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe BUY 36¢ $10 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 25¢ $10 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.21 · official $98.21 · 212 history records