Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:00:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x045c…5861 sports 873 markets active 2h ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$677 (-3%) realized −$705 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%412W / 450L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$478now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days−$811
14 days−$482
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$481
other 14% −$417
crypto 11% +$83
world 9% −$161
politics 6% +$183
finance 4% +$97
tech 2% +$75
culture 0% −$29
economics 0% +$2
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -43.4% -48.8% 28% 26% -29.9%
≤30d 239 -2.0% -11.3% 47% 45% -8.6%
≤90d 369 -15.0% -23.1% 42% 40% -19.6%
all 862 -3.7% -12.9% 48% 46% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 46% -12.6%
10% -21.2% 42% -21.0%
15% -28.8% 40% -28.6%
20% -35.8% 37% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$478
Realized−$705
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses412 / 450
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions7
Markets (closed)862 / 873
History coverage369d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 862 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 86¢ 99¢ $255 $295 +$40 (+16%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? No 66¢ 67¢ $93 $94 +$1 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 96¢ $33 $37 +$5 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 16¢ 14¢ $32 $27 −$5 (-16%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+11%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? No 49¢ 38¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-23%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 34¢ 3¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $8 −$7 -99%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $102 −$2 -2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $23 +$22 +95%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $8 +$7 +86%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $8 +$8 +101%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Alex Baena: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Kimberly Birre Jun 21 $8 +$6 +79%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $8 −$7 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 21 $5 +$19 +379%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $8 +$6 +73%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $8 −$7 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$19 +73%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $23 +$17 +72%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$17 +335%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 +$8 +56%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $15 +$6 +42%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $21 +$19 +92%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $7 +$3 +39%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $8 −$7 -99%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $8 +$6 +79%
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $15 +$12 +79%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +30%
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $81 +$32 +39%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $441 +$32 +7%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 9? Jun 18 $13 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Heilbronn: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Luka Mikrut Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 67¢ $43 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 65¢ $25 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 49¢ $16 14h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $1 14h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 16h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 79¢ $47 16h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 79¢ $8 16h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $100 16h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $45 16h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 39¢ $8 17h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 59¢ $15 17h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $14 18h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $15 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $36 19h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $102 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $73 19h
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $6 19h
Alex Baena: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $5 20h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $8 20h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 33¢ $8 20h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $8 21h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $8 21h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 64¢ $9 22h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 64¢ $10 22h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 64¢ $7 22h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk BUY Hamish Stewart 38¢ $5 25h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Kimberly Birre BUY Kimberly Birrell 55¢ $8 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $8 35h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $8 35h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY 59¢ $15 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $478.34 · official $478.71 (match) · 2553 history records