Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:34:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
04 0x045a…26b5 crypto 445 markets active 0h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$285 (-1%) realized −$276 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate65%288W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$16
sports 1% −$179
other 1% −$4
weather 1% −$102
tech 0% −$9
finance 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 444 -7.2% -16.1% 65% 27% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 27% -10.4%
10% -24.1% 27% -18.9%
15% -31.4% 26% -26.8%
20% -38.2% 26% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$276
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses288 / 156
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)444 / 445
History coverage156d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 444 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $152 $142 −$9 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 149 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 30 $118 −$118 -100%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 30 $133 −$133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 07 $394 −$394 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 07 $379 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 07 $383 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 07 $386 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 07 $359 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 07 $367 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 07 $371 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 07 $375 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 06 $356 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 06 $352 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 06 $344 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 06 $314 +$30 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 06 $110 −$109 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 06 $419 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 06 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 06 $407 +$4 +1%
XRP Up or Down - March 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 05 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 05 $382 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 05 $378 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 05 $374 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 04 $365 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 04 $354 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 04 $351 +$4 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 04 $344 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 04 $340 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 04 $330 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 04 $326 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 04 $323 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 04 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 04 $317 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 04 $314 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 04 $311 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 15¢ $156 1h
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 52d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 52d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $123 57d
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $102 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $394 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $386 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $383 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $379 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $375 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $371 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $367 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $359 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $356 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $352 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $344 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $314 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $110 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $419 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $71 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $19 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.42 · official $142.42 (match) · 891 history records