Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0459…0fcb other 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$709 (-42%) realized −$702 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -71% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$389
sports 35% −$337
world 5% −$2
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-73.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -70.8% -73.6% 4% 4% -61.9%
≤30d 23 -70.8% -73.6% 4% 4% -61.9%
≤90d 23 -70.8% -73.6% 4% 4% -61.9%
all 23 -70.8% -73.6% 4% 4% -61.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -73.6% 4% -61.9%
10% -76.1% 4% -65.5%
15% -78.4% 4% -68.8%
20% -80.5% 4% -71.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -71% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late -84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$38 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$309
Realized−$702
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 22
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions9
Markets (closed)23 / 32
History coverage3d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-5%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $77 −$75 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$1 -4%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$3 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$3 -4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $81 −$2 -3%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$49 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$94 +93%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 28m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 29m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 29¢ $28 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $66 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 6h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 25h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $28 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 25h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 25h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 25h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 25h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 25h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 25h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 33h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 33h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 33h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $6 33h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 33h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 34h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $34 34h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $24 34h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.92 · official $308.92 (match) · 50 history records