Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:27:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0458…b2aa crypto 1448 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$436 (-4%) realized −$436 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%709W / 739L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day40.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$6
14 days+$9
30 days−$351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$711
other 3% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -26.7% -33.7% 33% 31% -7.7%
≤30d 418 -15.7% -23.7% 31% 29% -23.9%
≤90d 1448 -7.3% -16.2% 49% 42% -15.4%
all 1448 -7.3% -16.2% 49% 42% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 42% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 31% -23.5%
15% -31.5% 20% -30.9%
20% -38.2% 14% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$436
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses709 / 739
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1448 / 1448
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day40.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1448 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$5 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$5 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$7 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$7 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$9 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records