Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:03:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
04 0x0457…24b8 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$263 (+8%) realized +$263 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate100%8W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$399per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$227
other 25% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +7.4% -2.8% 100% 12% -1.8%
≤30d 8 +7.4% -2.8% 100% 12% -1.8%
≤90d 8 +7.4% -2.8% 100% 12% -1.8%
all 8 +7.4% -2.8% 100% 12% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 12% -1.8%
10% -12.1% 0% -11.2%
15% -20.6% 0% -19.7%
20% -28.4% 0% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$263
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses8 / 0
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$399
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $606 +$59 +10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $553 +$52 +10%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $329 +$28 +8%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 17 $465 +$61 +13%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $438 +$27 +6%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $401 +$36 +9%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $390 +$10 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $665 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $606 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $606 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $553 3h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 100¢ $357 3h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 92¢ $329 4h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle SELL Sebastian Ofner 100¢ $526 5h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Sebastian Ofner 88¢ $465 6h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $6 6h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 99¢ $6 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $438 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 96¢ $438 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $401 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $390 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records