Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:02:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
04 0x0456…b296 sports 230 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$314 (+1%) realized +$231 · open +$83
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate90%206W / 23L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$833now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$75
14 days+$75
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$183
other 19% +$111
weather 10% +$80
tech 3% −$89
finance 0% −$7
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +2.6% -7.2% 77% 31% -6.8%
≤30d 19 -2.0% -11.3% 68% 32% -11.8%
≤90d 147 -3.4% -12.6% 86% 7% -9.6%
all 229 -1.9% -11.3% 90% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 4% -9.2%
10% -19.8% 1% -17.9%
15% -27.5% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$37 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$833
Realized+$231
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses206 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)229 / 230
History coverage101d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 88¢ 98¢ $750 $833 +$83 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $201 +$10 +5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $151 +$24 +16%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $190 +$6 +3%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $151 +$21 +14%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $200 +$14 +7%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $301 +$46 +15%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $201 −$10 -5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $151 −$34 -22%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $190 +$22 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $201 −$59 -29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $201 +$14 +7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $151 +$6 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $201 +$15 +7%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $201 +$10 +5%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $301 +$38 +13%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 03 $304 −$184 -61%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 02 $304 −$129 -42%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $504 +$87 +17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $230 −$7 -3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 11 $300 +$11 +4%
Barcelona Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jack Draper Apr 13 $200 +$2 +1%
OGC Nice vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 4.5 Apr 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will AZ win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $100 +$5 +5%
CA Paranaense vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $250 $0 +0%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $200 +$11 +6%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 4.5 Apr 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Sønderjyske Fodbold vs. Viborg FF: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $200 +$5 +2%
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Sebastian Ofner vs Patrick Kypson Apr 12 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Genoa CFC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $250 +$22 +9%
Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $400 +$7 +2%
Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5 Apr 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Sparta Rotterdam vs. PSV: O/U 4.5 Apr 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Viking FK win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $200 +$3 +2%
Viking FK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 Apr 11 $100 +$7 +7%
AVS Futebol vs. Vitória SC: O/U 4.5 Apr 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $200 +$7 +3%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5 Apr 11 $100 +$2 +2%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5 Apr 11 $200 +$2 +1%
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5 Apr 11 $308 −$205 -66%
Delfino Pescara 1936 vs. UC Sampdoria: O/U 3.5 Apr 11 $40 +$1 +2%
Will SS Juve Stabia win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $300 +$1 +0%
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 225.5 Apr 11 $200 $0 +0%
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 227.5 Apr 11 $180 +$3 +1%
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 226.5 Apr 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Nets vs. Bucks Apr 11 $200 +$1 +0%
Canucks vs. Kings: O/U 7.5 Apr 10 $600 +$7 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 89¢ $211 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $201 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $151 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 97¢ $190 18h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 96¢ $171 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $215 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 84¢ $151 28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $200 28h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $347 41h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $101 41h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $200 41h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 87¢ $190 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 61¢ $117 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $151 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $201 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 95¢ $212 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 59¢ $142 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $190 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $201 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 96¢ $215 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 77¢ $157 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $151 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $201 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 93¢ $216 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 86¢ $201 3d
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 93¢ $211 15d
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $201 15d
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $339 16d
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $301 16d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 27¢ $120 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $833.10 · official $833.10 (match) · 542 history records