Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:43:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
04 0x0452…7835 world 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+58%) realized +$3 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$2
politics 28% +$2
other 15% $0
finance 17% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +75.4% +58.7% 100% 100% +58.7%
≤30d 2 -12.3% -20.6% 50% 50% +42.8%
≤90d 4 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 50% +21.4%
all 4 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 50% +21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 50% +21.4%
10% -16.5% 50% +9.8%
15% -24.6% 50% -0.8%
20% -32.0% 50% -10.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage69d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 99¢ $1 $5 +$3 (+240%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 60¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $2 +$2 +75%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? May 14 $2 +$3 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.79 · official $9.79 (match) · 9 history records