Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:08:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0450…af70 world 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$50 (+2%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate45%26W / 32L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$1
other 7% +$5
politics 4% −$13
weather 3% −$10
sports 2% +$66
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 32 +41.3% +27.8% 28% 3% -9.5%
all 58 +28.9% +16.7% 45% 9% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.7% 9% -7.4%
10% +5.5% 9% -16.3%
15% -4.7% 9% -24.3%
20% -14.0% 9% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +46% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses26 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage521d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $59 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $32 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $63 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $32 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $35 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $49 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $71 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $8 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $37 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $70 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $84 +$6 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 24 $34 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $36 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $264 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 12 $285 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 12 $284 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Mar 23 $58 $0 +1%
Will Sue Bird make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 19 $11 $0 +1%
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025? Mar 19 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 19 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Mar 17 $2 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $18 $0 +2%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 47.0% on March 14? Mar 13 $6 −$5 -86%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 12 $2 −$2 -80%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $2 $0 +4%
Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $16 $0 +3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 5? Mar 04 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 5? Mar 04 $32 −$10 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $32 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $32 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $25 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $24 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $12 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $3 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $17 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $30 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $3 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $34 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $31 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $6 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $31 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $27 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $32 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $6 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $26 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $12 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 214 history records