Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x044f…e02f crypto 163 markets active 6d ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,547 (+5%) realized +$1,547 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate85%139W / 24L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$255
14 days+$261
30 days+$1,587
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,473
other 1% +$6
sports 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.4% -9.9% 82% 35% -5.3%
≤30d 129 +0.7% -8.9% 84% 46% -3.7%
≤90d 163 -0.6% -10.1% 85% 39% -5.0%
all 163 -0.6% -10.1% 85% 39% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 39% -5.0%
10% -18.7% 16% -14.1%
15% -26.5% 8% -22.4%
20% -33.7% 5% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$95 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,547
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses139 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)163 / 163
History coverage55d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 163 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $178 +$97 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $92 +$4 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $198 +$30 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET Jun 11 $255 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $37 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $223 +$39 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $313 +$47 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $360 +$59 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 11 $1,357 −$40 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 10 $187 −$147 -79%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $93 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET Jun 10 $1,008 +$44 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8AM ET Jun 10 $459 +$13 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8AM ET Jun 10 $65 +$3 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 10 $90 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $561 +$101 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $181 +$176 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $609 +$120 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $435 +$70 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 09 $681 +$99 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $341 +$83 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $84 −$84 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $437 +$128 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $53 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $193 +$28 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $46 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $397 +$81 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $148 −$147 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $121 −$121 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $211 +$106 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $59 +$31 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $426 +$131 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $36 +$16 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 07 $144 −$143 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 07 $123 +$17 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 07 $178 +$21 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 07 $376 +$114 +30%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $34 +$16 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $38 +$2 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $187 +$18 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $41 +$29 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $15 +$12 +80%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $116 −$114 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 06 $180 −$176 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 05 $374 −$371 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $65 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $62 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $74 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $99 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $56 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $43 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $255 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $37 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $17 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $46 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $46 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $17 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $180 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $64 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $42 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $32 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $87 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 893 history records