Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:46:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x044f…d1f1
weather · 557 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$11,461 +32%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$752 · open −$172
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16,801
Realized−$752
Unrealized−$172
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses205 / 170
Open positions193
Markets (closed)375 / 557
History coverage6d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day551.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 193 History 375 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$473
7 days−$752
14 days−$752
30 days−$752
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $1,537 $1,526 −$11 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 78¢ 74¢ $1,165 $1,102 −$62 (-5%)
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $950 $984 +$34 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? No 56¢ 99¢ $357 $636 +$279 (+78%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? No 76¢ 93¢ $362 $443 +$81 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? No 72¢ 89¢ $357 $439 +$82 (+23%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 55¢ 50¢ $440 $396 −$44 (-10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 83¢ 77¢ $417 $385 −$32 (-8%)
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $358 $357 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 75¢ 81¢ $320 $346 +$26 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? No 62¢ 63¢ $328 $335 +$7 (+2%)
EU dissolves before 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $318 $318 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? No 81¢ 78¢ $321 $306 −$15 (-5%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $296 $297 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? No 72¢ 84¢ $248 $291 +$43 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? No 61¢ 64¢ $273 $287 +$13 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $270 $283 +$13 (+5%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $270 $280 +$10 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? No 65¢ 70¢ $255 $277 +$22 (+9%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 92¢ $255 $276 +$21 (+8%)
Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31? No 91¢ 92¢ $273 $274 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 78¢ 55¢ $338 $236 −$103 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? No 67¢ 74¢ $206 $229 +$23 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 44¢ $99 $219 +$121 (+123%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Yes 50¢ 60¢ $162 $194 +$32 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $32 +$20 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $32 +$18 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $58 +$31 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $45 +$26 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 +$1 +662%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 +$5 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $95 +$54 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $294 +$101 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $44 +$147 +332%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $149 +$63 +42%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $36 +$6 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$5 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $96 +$25 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $229 +$107 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 +$91 +539%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $53 +$80 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$5 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $169 +$45 +27%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $34 +$9 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $262 −$262 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$3 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $51 +$15 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$101 +902%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $257 +$131 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $48 +$14 +30%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $231 +$74 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$27 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $59 +$34 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $72 +$48 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$5 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 13 $51 +$69 +136%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 83% −$859
world 8% −$149
other 8% +$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 23¢ $2 4m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 6m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 63¢ $7 8m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 9m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $52 18m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 20¢ $7 18m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 59¢ $11 19m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 20m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 21m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 42m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 42m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $50 46m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 48m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $50 51m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 52m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $40 56m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $89 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 65¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 375 +26.2% +14.1% 55% 55% -12.8%
≤30d 375 +26.2% +14.1% 55% 55% -12.8%
≤90d 375 +26.2% +14.1% 55% 55% -12.8%
all 375 +26.2% +14.1% 55% 55% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover551.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.1% 55% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here +3.2% 49% -21.2%
15% -6.8% 41% -28.8%
20% -15.9% 32% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,800.96 · official $16,789.54 (match) · 3500 history records