Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:53:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

04 0x044b…8a2c other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$20 (+6%) realized −$11 · open +$31

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR39%break-even

Win rate44%8W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$13per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit36%portable

Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$52

7 days+$55

14 days+$32

30 days+$32

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +39%

net ROI/market (all)-35.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+3.9%	-6.0%	64%	55%	+16.2%
≤30d	15	-23.8%	-31.1%	47%	40%	+3.6%
≤90d	15	-23.8%	-31.1%	47%	40%	+3.6%
all	18	-29.1%	-35.8%	44%	39%	-2.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-35.8%	39%	-2.6%
10%	-42.0%	33%	-11.9%
15%	-47.6%	28%	-20.4%
20%	-52.7%	11%	-28.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 61% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -29% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -73% → late +15% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.28 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage

Net worth$105

Realized−$11

Unrealized+$31

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses8 / 10

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions7

Markets (closed)18 / 25

History coverage250d

Avg bet$13

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
France leading at halftime?	Yes	56¢	100¢	$25	$45	+$20 (+78%)
Senegal leading at halftime?	Yes	63¢	98¢	$25	$39	+$14 (+55%)
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq?	Yes	13¢	22¢	$5	$9	+$4 (+73%)
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq?	Yes	14¢	18¢	$5	$7	+$2 (+32%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France?	Yes	9¢	11¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+28%)
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$4	$0	−$4 (-99%)
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$15	+$35	+226%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 25	$32	+$18	+55%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$16	+$7	+48%
Portugal leading at halftime?	Jun 23	$16	+$7	+47%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$15	+$7	+48%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5	Jun 21	$21	+$2	+7%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden?	Jun 20	$2	−$2	-97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden?	Jun 20	$2	−$2	-97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden?	Jun 20	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$54	+$6	+12%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa?	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa?	Jun 18	$2	−$2	-97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa?	Jun 18	$3	−$3	-98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$18	−$17	-99%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A	Mar 16	$6	−$6	-100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)	Oct 31	$9	+$3	+33%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3)	Oct 19	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Senegal leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	63¢	$25	1h
France leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	56¢	$25	1h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	9¢	$5	2h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	2h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	9¢	$4	2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	30¢	$15	17h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	64¢	$32	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	67¢	$16	2d
Portugal leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	68¢	$16	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$21	3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	93¢	$21	5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$15	5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden?	BUY Yes	5¢	$2	6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden?	BUY Yes	10¢	$2	6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden?	BUY Yes	10¢	$2	6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$54	6d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1	8d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa?	BUY Yes	12¢	$2	8d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa?	BUY Yes	14¢	$3	8d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	52¢	$12	9d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	53¢	$5	9d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A	BUY BNK FEARX	34¢	$6	102d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)	BUY T1	75¢	$9	238d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3)	BUY PSG Talon	65¢	$10	250d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.19 · official $105.19 (match) · 34 history records