Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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04 0x044b…1c2a crypto 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$35 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate80%32W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$356now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$70
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$36
tech 13% +$22
other 11% +$18
world 11% −$41
sports 7% +$12
economics 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.8% -7.9% 75% 38% -11.9%
≤30d 34 +0.7% -8.9% 82% 32% -11.0%
≤90d 40 -0.8% -10.3% 80% 32% -12.0%
all 40 -0.8% -10.3% 80% 32% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 32% -12.0%
10% -18.8% 8% -20.4%
15% -26.7% 5% -28.1%
20% -33.9% 2% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$28 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$356
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses32 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage53d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $198 $210 +$12 (+6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? No 92¢ 90¢ $71 $69 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 81¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-4%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 88¢ 94¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $63 +$8 +13%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 20? Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 +$4 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $37 −$29 -79%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 20 $51 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $32 +$5 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $29 +$3 +10%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 17 $28 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 14 $105 −$103 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $46 +$4 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $41 +$7 +18%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $41 +$7 +16%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $34 +$3 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$5 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $70 +$5 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $64 +$6 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $60 +$4 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$10 +20%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $88 +$7 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $77 +$12 +15%
UK Recession in 2026? Jun 06 $32 −$16 -49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $90 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $52 +$3 +6%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 04 $27 −$18 -67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $30 +$7 +22%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $85 +$19 +22%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro May 26 $35 +$1 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin May 25 $32 +$3 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $34 −$3 -9%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 25 $31 +$4 +12%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 23 $63 +$2 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 17 $2 −$1 -36%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 16 $51 +$10 +20%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 15, 2026? May 16 $20 +$10 +51%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 92¢ $71 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY No 88¢ $63 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL No 21¢ $8 3d
Will Solana reach $75 on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $50 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 71¢ $50 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $37 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $32 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $29 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $50 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $54 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $54 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $50 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 91¢ $46 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 13? BUY Yes 84¢ $41 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $41 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $37 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $46 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $41 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $34 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $75 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 93¢ $70 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $70 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? BUY No 91¢ $64 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $64 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 93¢ $60 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $60 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? BUY No 82¢ $50 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $356.28 · official $356.29 (match) · 105 history records