Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0449…a458 sports 152 markets active 1d ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$84 (-19%) realized −$83 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%35W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$20
14 days+$24
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$59
world 5% −$24
tech 1% −$5
politics 1% −$4
other 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +158.0% +133.4% 38% 38% +120.4%
≤30d 15 +149.1% +125.4% 47% 47% +100.7%
≤90d 106 -33.2% -39.5% 22% 22% -51.3%
all 144 -15.8% -23.8% 24% 24% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 24% -29.0%
10% -31.1% 22% -35.8%
15% -37.8% 20% -42.0%
20% -43.9% 17% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$83
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses35 / 109
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)144 / 152
History coverage126d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$14 +1331%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +291%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$4 +83%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $5 +$5 +105%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 23 $6 −$1 -16%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 23 $5 $0 -9%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Apr 23 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Apr 22 $5 +$5 +101%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Apr 22 $5 +$6 +119%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 22 $5 +$2 +48%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 22 $2 $0 +31%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 22 $6 −$3 -55%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 22 $16 −$6 -39%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Apr 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 30h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 54¢ $5 8d
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 34d
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 34d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 34d
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 34d
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 34d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 34d
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 34d
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.29 · official $7.41 (match) · 480 history records