Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:45:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0449…99cc crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-13%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -30.4% -37.0% 44% 33% -27.6%
≤30d 9 -30.4% -37.0% 44% 33% -27.6%
≤90d 9 -30.4% -37.0% 44% 33% -27.6%
all 9 -30.4% -37.0% 44% 33% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.0% 33% -27.6%
10% ← realistic here -43.0% 33% -34.6%
15% -48.5% 22% -40.9%
20% -53.6% 22% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$23 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $81 −$10 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$16 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records