Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:24:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
04 0x0449…29ff other 5 markets active 2d ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$500per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage6d
Avg bet$500
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $292 $292 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $320 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $973 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $485 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $292 43h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $320 43h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $320 2d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $490 2d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $490 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $431 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $432 4d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $484 4d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $485 6d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $482 6d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $483 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.85 · official $291.85 (match) · 16 history records