Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:41:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0448…3c27 world 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate43%23W / 31L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$4
other 24% $0
sports 16% +$10
economics 5% $0
politics 5% $0
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -4.3% -13.4% 30% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 23 -1.8% -11.1% 39% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 53 -2.3% -11.6% 42% 4% -9.6%
all 54 -0.5% -10.0% 43% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 6% -9.2%
10% -18.6% 2% -17.9%
15% -26.5% 2% -25.8%
20% -33.7% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses23 / 31
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage491d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $46 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $80 $0 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $4 −$2 -43%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 23 $58 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $58 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $65 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $78 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $40 −$3 -8%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $123 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $88 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $58 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $60 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $119 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $9 +$1 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $12 −$1 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $55 +$7 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $18 −$2 -13%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $4 −$1 -15%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $54 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $21 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $31 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $6 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $12 $0 -1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $44 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $77 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $3 −$1 -39%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $55 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $17 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $54 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $118 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $62 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $13 $0 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $151 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $6 +$1 +14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $62 +$1 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $45 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $46 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $42 3h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $4 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $46 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $10 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $33 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $20 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $3 9h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 23h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 23h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 23h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 93¢ $58 26h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $58 29h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $58 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $58 37h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $54 43h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $3 43h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $18 45h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $41 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $65 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $65 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $22 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $59 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $59 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.00 (match) · 249 history records