Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:51:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
04 0x0447…d546 crypto 1670 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,079 (-4%) realized −$4,079 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate76%1425W / 454L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day47.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$4,036
sports 1% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 464 -47.7% -52.7% 46% 12% -49.8%
≤30d 1492 -18.2% -26.0% 72% 20% -22.4%
≤90d 1879 -14.7% -22.8% 76% 20% -19.7%
all 1879 -14.7% -22.8% 76% 20% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 20% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 10% -27.3%
15% -37.0% 5% -34.4%
20% -43.1% 3% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$41 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$4,079
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1425 / 454
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1879 / 1670
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$54
Trades / day47.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1879 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 81¢ 80¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 420 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $36 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $52 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.94 · official $40.63 · 3500 history records