Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:16:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0445…1571 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 326d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$14
politics 7% −$1
weather 6% $0
crypto 6% +$1
economics 5% $0
culture 5% $0
sports 3% $0
other 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 14 +2.1% -7.6% 57% 14% -7.0%
≤90d 14 +2.1% -7.6% 57% 14% -7.0%
all 31 +0.9% -8.7% 39% 6% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 6% -8.0%
10% -17.4% 0% -16.8%
15% -25.4% 0% -24.9%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.17 per $1 lost it wins $6.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

326d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage326d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $52 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $58 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $68 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $52 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $131 +$14 +11%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $19 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $44 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $14 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 +12%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $17 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $3 $0 +10%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 13 $33 −$1 -2%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 83-84°F on August 10 Aug 12 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 11 $48 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or higher on Aug Aug 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 11 $48 $0 -0%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by Sunday, July 27? Aug 10 $53 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Jul 31 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 28 $6 $0 -1%
Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 28 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $52 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $15 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $37 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $1 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $57 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $58 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $17 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $31 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $42 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $7 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $2 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $42 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $9 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $16 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $20 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $5 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $22 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $47 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records