Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
04 0x0445…f22c crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$82 (+10%) realized +$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$278
7 days+$285
14 days+$285
30 days+$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +40.2% +26.8% 67% 67% +34.6%
≤30d 9 +40.2% +26.8% 67% 67% +34.6%
≤90d 9 +40.2% +26.8% 67% 67% +34.6%
all 21 -2.7% -12.0% 48% 48% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 48% +8.7%
10% -20.4% 48% -1.7%
15% -28.1% 48% -11.2%
20% -35.1% 43% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$21 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage119d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$43 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$79 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$53 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$87 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $106 +$64 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$46 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 18 $10 +$13 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 18 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Feb 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Feb 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 18 $20 +$17 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 18 $20 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Feb 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Feb 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Feb 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Feb 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $132 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $74 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $53 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $105 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $48 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $52 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $191 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $170 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $106 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $57 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $20 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $20 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $30 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $30 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $20 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $20 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $20 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $8 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records