Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:03:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
04 0x0444…23af sports 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,971 (-52%) realized −$6,929 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$927now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$475
7 days−$1,221
14 days−$2,112
30 days−$2,112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$5,447
sports 33% +$526
other 24% −$1,980
politics 1% +$1
economics 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +31.4% +18.9% 40% 40% -30.5%
≤30d 25 +11.7% +1.1% 36% 36% -37.6%
≤90d 25 +11.7% +1.1% 36% 36% -37.6%
all 32 -5.9% -14.9% 31% 31% -63.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 31% -63.2%
10% -23.0% 28% -66.7%
15% -30.5% 28% -69.9%
20% -37.3% 28% -72.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -45% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$264 vs −$436 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$927
Realized−$6,929
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions5
Markets (closed)32 / 38
History coverage164d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $69 $66 −$3 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $100 $61 −$39 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $154 +$596 +388%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $123 −$122 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $160 −$150 -94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,512 −$1,444 -96%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $158 +$80 +51%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $106 +$328 +309%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $310 +$761 +245%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $107 −$100 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,521 −$1,500 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $102 +$374 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $951 +$120 +13%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $202 +$131 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $406 −$400 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Aiemann Zahabi win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$30 +291%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $1,015 −$500 -49%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $113 −$110 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$168 +165%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? Mar 08 $3,005 −$3,005 -100%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026? Mar 08 $40 +$47 +118%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Feb 22 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 08 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 09 $989 −$989 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $506 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $123 7h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 7h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $160 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,512 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $158 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $53 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $105 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $106 6d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $106 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $107 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $71 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,014 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $507 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $113 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $51 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $101 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $203 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $102 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $101 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $335 7d
Will Aiemann Zahabi win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $101 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $101 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $927.31 · official $927.31 (match) · 79 history records