Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:52:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
04 0x0444…a0f2 world 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$381 (+9%) realized +$489 · open −$108
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate62%86W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$126
14 days+$204
30 days+$324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$159
other 26% +$71
crypto 9% +$32
politics 8% −$112
tech 4% +$65
sports 2% −$53
finance 2% −$6
culture 1% −$2
economics 0% −$10
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +66.7% +50.8% 89% 89% +48.1%
≤30d 28 +41.4% +27.9% 82% 79% +25.3%
≤90d 117 +0.4% -9.1% 62% 56% -5.4%
all 139 +1.3% -8.3% 62% 55% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 55% -3.8%
10% -17.1% 43% -13.0%
15% -25.1% 35% -21.4%
20% -32.4% 22% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$16 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$355
Realized+$489
Unrealized−$108
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses86 / 53
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)139 / 156
History coverage148d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $83 $85 +$2 (+2%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 55¢ 54¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by June 30? No 74¢ 96¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+30%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $43 $21 −$21 (-50%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-17%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No 50¢ 48¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? No 48¢ 44¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 12¢ $40 $16 −$24 (-60%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 16¢ $29 $16 −$14 (-47%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-29%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-42%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-53%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-86%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 10¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 23 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 23 $31 +$39 +128%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $15 +$10 +65%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $21 +$15 +75%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $20 +$16 +79%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $10 +$14 +136%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 18 $15 +$27 +179%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Jun 17 $25 +$5 +19%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $25 −$13 -53%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $35 +$27 +78%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $63 +$22 +34%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $20 −$7 -34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $55 +$20 +37%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 +$8 +41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $20 +$18 +91%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $10 +$10 +100%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 10 $15 −$7 -47%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $25 +$27 +106%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 06 $20 +$9 +47%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 05 $52 +$2 +4%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $21 +$18 +85%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $57 +$24 +42%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31? Jun 01 $30 +$15 +49%
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary ele May 31 $30 +$5 +17%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 28 $100 +$24 +24%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 27 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 24 $54 −$16 -30%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 24 $20 +$18 +90%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 24 $20 +$5 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 24 $25 +$10 +39%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $75 +$7 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $15 +$8 +52%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $70 −$16 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $75 −$6 -8%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 21 $15 −$8 -54%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May? May 21 $24 +$13 +53%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $30 +$9 +28%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 20 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 18 $10 +$23 +235%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 18 $26 +$13 +51%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 17 $25 −$15 -60%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? May 15 $5 −$5 -92%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? May 15 $36 +$26 +72%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 05 $26 +$18 +71%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? May 05 $53 −$53 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? May 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? May 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 55¢ $36 35m
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $60 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 75¢ $70 3h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $25 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $15 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $36 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes $11 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 10¢ $12 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 4d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $24 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 32¢ $31 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $21 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $42 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $40 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 6d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 6d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 6d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $12 6d
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? BUY Yes 84¢ $22 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 51¢ $42 7d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $10 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $20 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $12 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $62 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $56 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 29¢ $13 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.99 · official $354.99 (match) · 410 history records