Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:33:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0443…2221 world 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,176 (-6%) realized −$1,175 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate21%16W / 61L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day51.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$487
7 days−$1,200
14 days−$1,221
30 days−$1,221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$371
politics 9% −$238
other 8% −$274
economics 3% +$1
tech 3% −$137
culture 3% −$193
finance 1% −$10
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -10.3% -18.9% 19% 3% -15.4%
≤30d 77 -10.3% -18.9% 21% 3% -15.3%
≤90d 77 -10.3% -18.9% 21% 3% -15.3%
all 77 -10.3% -18.9% 21% 3% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 3% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 1% -23.4%
15% -33.7% 1% -30.8%
20% -40.2% 1% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$29 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$299
Realized−$1,175
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses16 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)77 / 83
History coverage10d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day51.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dan Schwartz be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $282 $281 −$1 (-0%)
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? No 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 36¢ 56¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 35¢ 54¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+53%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 13¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo Jun 17 $182 −$94 -52%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? Jun 17 $284 −$13 -5%
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $32 $0 +1%
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $209 −$4 -2%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 17 $268 −$30 -11%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $32 −$2 -6%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -15%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 17 $180 −$25 -14%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 17 $296 −$14 -5%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $68 −$7 -11%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $26 +$4 +14%
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $387 −$3 -1%
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 17 $49 −$26 -54%
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July Jun 17 $278 −$26 -10%
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 17 $48 −$11 -23%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Ma Jun 17 $30 −$5 -16%
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $218 −$46 -21%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $142 −$44 -31%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.? Jun 17 $32 −$19 -60%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $278 −$20 -7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 17 $300 −$6 -2%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 17 $36 −$2 -6%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $50 −$11 -23%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $9 $0 -4%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $14 −$9 -66%
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 17 $34 −$10 -28%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $552 −$60 -11%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 16 $72 −$2 -2%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $165 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 14 $161 −$116 -72%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 14 $75 −$26 -35%
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 14 $433 −$54 -12%
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $356 −$136 -38%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Jun 14 $331 −$30 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $283 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2,405 −$93 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $128 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3,693 +$28 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $553 −$6 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +156%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 13 $289 −$165 -57%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Jun 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $1,221 +$23 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL No 24¢ $2 43m
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL No 31¢ $5 49m
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL No 23¢ $12 1h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL No 28¢ $6 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? SELL No 84¢ $17 1h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL No 28¢ $6 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? SELL No 84¢ $5 1h
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 88¢ $32 1h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL No 28¢ $6 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? SELL No 85¢ $5 1h
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 87¢ $32 1h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL No 28¢ $11 1h
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 84¢ $153 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? SELL No 84¢ $116 1h
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 85¢ $5 1h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL No 30¢ $16 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? SELL No 84¢ $10 1h
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 86¢ $47 1h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL No 27¢ $5 1h
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 86¢ $209 1h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL No 27¢ $4 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? SELL No 85¢ $76 1h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL Yes 86¢ $22 1h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL No 28¢ $17 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? SELL No 85¢ $42 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? BUY No 88¢ $20 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? BUY No 88¢ $264 1h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo BUY No 57¢ $182 1h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL Yes 85¢ $84 2h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 87¢ $28 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.85 · official $298.84 (match) · 542 history records