trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 19 | -4.3% | -13.4% | 79% | 16% | -37.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.4% | 16% | -37.3% |
| 10% | -21.7% | 5% | -43.3% |
| 15% | -29.3% | 0% | -48.8% |
| 20% | -36.2% | 0% | -53.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? | No | 83¢ | 73¢ | $155 | $136 | −$19 (-12%) |
| Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 87¢ | $107 | $106 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? | Yes | 94¢ | 93¢ | $50 | $49 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 16? | No | 95¢ | 80¢ | $19 | $16 | −$3 (-16%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Meta acquire TikTok? | Jan 25 | $13 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Amazon acquire TikTok? | Jan 25 | $78 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will diVine launch iOS app by December 31? | Jan 01 | $20 | +$1 | +3% |
| Cardano ETF in 2025? | Jan 01 | $19 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31? | Jan 01 | $20 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity in 2025? | Jan 01 | $56 | +$5 | +9% |
| Cluely CEO Roy Lee in jail in 2025 | Jan 01 | $100 | +$9 | +8% |
| Starmer out in 2025? | Jan 01 | $103 | +$11 | +11% |
| Cluely $1B valuation in 2025? | Jan 01 | $145 | +$4 | +3% |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2025? | Jan 01 | $168 | +$5 | +3% |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill in 2025? | Dec 08 | $88 | +$6 | +7% |
| US congress stock trading ban in 2025? | Dec 07 | $90 | +$5 | +6% |
| Pepe ETF in 2025? | Dec 06 | $90 | +$6 | +7% |
| Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? | Dec 06 | $60 | +$15 | +26% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 05 | $107 | +$11 | +10% |
| OpenAI browser by October 31? | Oct 21 | $100 | +$14 | +14% |
| Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30? | Oct 01 | $100 | +$9 | +9% |
| OpenAI social app in 2025? | Oct 01 | $545 | −$545 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Oct 30 | $408 | −$204 | -50% |